Results

The results section shows a summary of all the forecasts for presentation in reports and articles

• The main value displayed in the geometric mean (for a likelihood) or the 50th percentile of an aggregate PD for causes.

• Below the bars are “pills” that group forecasts by even buckets (e.g. 10-15%, 15-20%). The darker the color, the more forecasts that fall within the range.

  

• Hover/tap on those buckets to see the number of forecasts, and each forecast value and comment

• admins have the ability to decide which comments will be displayed in the published version

Aggregation

Likelihood

This is the geometric mean of the odds:

• Convert likelihood % to odds
• Get the geometric mean of the odds
• Convert to a likelihood %

Quantity aggregate

We follow the following process to get a single aggregate value for quantity forecasts

• Convert the drawings and logistic forecasts into discrete cumulative distributions
• Average those probabilities at a range of x values.
• Take the 50th percentile of that average distribution as our aggregate.

Note: The curve you see in the viz is the average cumulative distribution converted back to a probability distribution.